IMM Positioning

Speculative investors turn net long the dollar

The latest IMM data cover the week from 19 to 26 January.

Coinciding with the past week's strong dollar performance, non-commercial investors have once again turned net long the dollar.

Long dollar positions against the euro were built further to reach 21 percent of open interest – not far from the level of short EUR positions in place at the height of the financial crisis. As a result, the risk to EUR/USD from a position squeeze remains skewed to the upside.

While the extension of short EUR positions was the main driver of the increase in net long dollar positions, the IMM data do show a broad-based build-up in USD longs. This is not least visible from the unwinding of long positions in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD.

Contrary to the overall trend, non-commercial investors reduced net short positions in the yen – implying that net positions are now close to neutral

The IMM data

The IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday's open futures positions on the International Money Market (IMM) a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All of a trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.3(z), 17 CFR 1.3(z). A trader may be classified as a commercial trader in some commodities and as a noncommercial trader in other commodities

Danske Bank
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